800 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.  Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are  expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the

middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the

system later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.