0200 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists
with an area of low pressure located around 225 miles east of
Jacksonville, Florida. However, it is unclear if the system
possesses a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental
conditions remain marginally conducive for some additional
development, and this system could become a short-lived tropical
depression as the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The
system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or
the Georgia coast later today, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later this morning, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America later today.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.