YANKEE – NO INCOMING VESSELS, VESSELS IN PORT MUST BE PREPARED TO DEPART – CLOSURE WITHIN 24 HOURS. - TAMPA/PORT MANATEE

SEASONAL 4 - MIA/PORT EVERGLADES/CHARLESTON/WILMINGTON

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Hurricane Helene Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024

1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

 

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE......EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W

ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Charlotte Harbor

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas

* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

* Flamingo northward to South Santee River

* Lake Okeechobee

* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico

* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 86.3 West.  Helene is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening.  After landfall, Helene is expected

to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday.

 

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.  Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde is 979 mb (28.91inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...6-10 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft

Tampa Bay...5-8 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft

Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

 

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Thursday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba, and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of Cuba today.

 

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches.  This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

 

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the  Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.  Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY – FROM MORAN SHIPPING – 25/1700

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Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.