Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 11A - NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024 - 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

 

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING FRANCINE......LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

 

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...27.5N 93.3W

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border

* Vermilion Bay

* Lake Maurepas

* Lake Pontchartrain

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

* Mobile Bay

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line

* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):  Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.  The disturbance is expected to reach an area of stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. East of the Leeward Islands:  A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

4. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:  In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.