Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052024

200 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024

 

...ERNESTO CLOSING IN ON BERMUDA......STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...30.0N 66.1W

ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Bermuda

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday.  A faster northeastward motion is expected late this weekend into early next week.  On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning.

 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.

 

Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 55 miles (90 km) north-northeast of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h), with a gust up to 74 mph (119 km/h).

 

The minimum central pressure based on data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches).