Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:  A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana and over the
adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf. This system is expected to meander near the coast for the next couple of days, and some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. By Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland, and further development is not expected. Regardless, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:  Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed little in organization since yesterday. The disturbance is expected to move westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then cross the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea during the middle and latter parts of the week, and a tropical depression could form during that time. Regardless of development, this system could result in some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:  A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore by Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system throughout the week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.