Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:  A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves north- northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:  A tropical wave moving quickly westward at about 20 mph is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  Some development is possible early next week when the system moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean:  Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:  An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.