Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):  Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon) located over a thousand miles southwest of the Azores.  Significant development of this system is not expected while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):  An area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing showers and a few thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of this system during the next couple of days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:  A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:  A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Sunday or Monday.  Gradual subsequent development of this system is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.