Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):  An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda continues to produce showers and thunderstorms north of its center.  Although environmental conditions are not very favorable for development, a short-lived tropical depression can not be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:  A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:  A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa over the next few days.  Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.