Notice
Miami, FL
November 03, 2024
Notices
Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
1200 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024
...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 25.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
====================================================================
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the
southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible
during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern
Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed
into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late
Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the
southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible
during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern
Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed
into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late
Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
