Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi partners - 

 

Here is an update Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (PTC6). 

 

 

· PTC6 is forecast to become a tropical storm (Francine) later today, and continue gradually strengthening into a hurricane before landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday.

· It is forecast to move generally northward through the western Gulf and then more northeastward, making landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast. 

· PTC6 is still not a developed system and currently lacks a well defined center of circulation. This is still leading to much uncertainty and relatively large shifts in the forecast remain possible until it develops a more defined center.

 

· We are confident (and confidence is slightly increasing) that this storm will bring multiple impacts to southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi mainly during the Wed/Thurs time frame 

· We are less confident in the specific locations and magnitudes of the greatest impacts.

 

·  Currently, widespread rainfall totals of 4-8" are forecast with locally higher amounts, between 7a Tuesday and 7p Friday. Most of this rain will fall between 7a Wednesday and midday Thursday. With saturated soils from recent heavy rains, this additional rain could quickly lead to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas or isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. Rises on area rivers are also likely, but will depend on where the heaviest rain falls.

·  Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible. Some low lying roads, lots and access routes could be flooded during the time of high tide, with the greatest impacts Wed and Thurs mornings. 

·  Gusty to damaging winds will be possible mainly on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with the strength of these winds highly dependent on the eventual track and intensity of the storm.

·  A few tornadoes may be possible Wednesday through early Thursday.

 

The attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.

 

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/LIX

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

The next update will be sent with the next track update before this morning's webinar.  

 

We will also be holding daily webinars at 11am starting today through Thursday. Please see the email sent earlier for registration information.

 

If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us.  We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429.  Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster.  Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.