TAMPA/PORT MANATEE/PORT CANAVERAL/JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH – CONDITION X-RAY, NO INCOMING VESSELS WITHOUT USCG PERMISSION

MIA/PORT EVERGLADES/CHARLESTON/WILMINGTON – SEASONAL 4

=======================================================================================================================================

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024

500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

 

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA......HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W

ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Charlotte Harbor

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida

* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dry Tortugas

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge

* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico

* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Lake Okeechobee

* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West.  Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn  toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move

across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.  The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center.

 

Data from NOAA buoy 42056 indicate that the minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone - Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

 

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

 

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft

Tampa Bay...5-8 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft

Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.  Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY FROM AGENT - Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.