TAMPA/PORT MANATEE/PORT CANAVERAL/JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH – CONDITION X-RAY, NO INCOMING VESSELS WITHOUT USCG PERMISSION

MIA/PORT EVERGLADES/CHARLESTON/WILMINGTON – SEASONAL 4

=======================================================================================================================================

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024

1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

 

...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Charlotte Harbor

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida

* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dry Tortugas

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge

* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday.  The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

 

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

 

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding.  Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft

Tampa Bay...5-8 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft

Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

 

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in Florida on Wednesday and spread northward through Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday.

 

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Wednesday night over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama.  The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.  Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.